Electoral Shift: High Social Trust and Low Incumbent Rating Sink Identity Politics in East Belitung

Manggar – In a striking departure from the highly polarized, identity-driven campaigns often seen across Indonesia, the 2024 East Belitung regional election (Pilkada) has demonstrated that performance and social cohesion can dismantle primordial voting barriers. Kamarudin Muten, locally known as Afa, an ethnic Chinese candidate, secured a landslide victory in a multi-ethnic region where the Muslim population stands at an overwhelming 95.78%.

A comprehensive quantitative survey conducted by Ranto, a political scientist from the University of Bangka Belitung (UBB), reveals that the mobilizing power of ethnic and religious sentiment significantly weakened during this election cycle. The study, titled "Social Capital, Incumbent Performance, and the Declining Salience of Identity Politics: Evidence from the 2024 East Belitung Regional Election," was published in the journal Society (Volume 13, Number 3, Edisi 2025).

The Landslide Numbers: Defeating the Incumbent

The official vote recapitulation by the Regional General Election Commission (KPU) confirmed that Afa, running alongside Khairil Anwar, captured 65.86% of the vote (44,949 votes). Meanwhile, the incumbent regent, Burhanudin, who paired with Ali Reza Mahendra—a member of the politically prominent Yusril Ihza Mahendra family—failed to retain office, gaining only 34.11% (23,301 votes).

2024 EAST BELITUNG ELECTION OUTCOME
├── Kamarudin Muten (Afa) - Khairil Anwar: 65.86% (44,949 votes) 🏆
└── Burhanudin - Ali Reza Mahendra (Incumbent): 34.11% (23,301 votes) ❌

A field survey of 400 respondents administered proportionally across East Belitung sub-districts between November 12 and 16, 2024, exposed a gaping chasm in candidate favorability weeks before election day. Afa maintained a comfortable 55.8% favorability rating compared to Burhanudin’s 23.5%, leaving the incumbent at a severe structural disadvantage.

Crucially, cross-tabulation data showed that half of the Muslim respondents (50%) directly supported Afa, outpacing the support given to the Muslim incumbent. Non-Muslim minorities—including Buddhist, Confucian, Protestant, and Catholic voters—voted exclusively for Afa, leaving Burhanudin with virtually zero measurable support from non-Muslim demographics.

Retrospective Voting: Performance Trumps Primordialism

What caused identity politics to lose its grip in the region famously known as Bumi Laskar Pelangi? The study points directly to retrospective voting behavior, where voters evaluate an incumbent's past governance performance rather than their social identity.

Burhanudin’s administration suffered from widespread public dissatisfaction. The survey noted that a staggering 63.75% of citizens reported being dissatisfied or less satisfied with the regent's performance over his five-year tenure. Only a meager 25.8% expressed satisfaction.

Source: Public Satisfaction with Incumbent Performance, Society Journal (2025)

When voters were asked about their primary reasons for choosing a candidate, substantive qualities heavily outweighed identity markers. Attentiveness to community needs topped the list at 23.25%, followed closely by the candidate's perceived ability to inclusively represent all social groups in East Belitung (17.75%). Government experience ranked third at 12.50%.

Strong Social Capital as a Democratic Shield

The research establishes that East Belitung possesses an incredibly resilient foundation of social capital, operationalized through high levels of interethnic trust and tolerance. This daily social cohesion successfully insulated the local electorate from divisive, identity-based external political campaigns.

• Interpersonal Trust: A solid 58.79% of respondents agreed that people in their daily social circles can generally be trusted, while only 6.25% disagreed.

• Perceived Inclusivity: Approximately 59.25% of respondents agreed that the presence of individuals from different ethnic backgrounds poses no social or economic threat to their community.

• Fading Taboos: When asked about candidate demographics, 66.50% of voters explicitly stated that a candidate's ethnic background was no longer a primary concern. Furthermore, an overwhelming 78.50% expressed a willingness to be led by a non-Muslim regional leader.

Ranto argues that when everyday social capital is strong and an incumbent's performance is weak, identity appeals completely lose their mobilizing power. The political trajectory of East Belitung proves that minority candidates do not need to rely on religious conversions or avoid their identity to win. As long as democratic institutions remain fair, candidates who present inclusive, public-interest-oriented platforms can successfully bypass primordial barriers.

Source: Ranto, R. (2025). Social capital, incumbent performance, and the declining salience of identity politics: Evidence from the 2024 East Belitung regional election. Society, 13(3), 1147-1164. https://doi.org/10.33019/society.v13i3.955